SS asks:
What makes statistical modeling different from, say, new age methods of trying to predict the future?
If you live on the east coast of the United States and paid any attention to the news in the past week, you couldn’t get away from statistical models. There are US models & European models, all trying to answer the same questions: How much snow will fall, in what cities, and when? I live north of Pittsburgh, on the outer edge of this particular storm’s path. One day the models said the storm was tracking north and we should expect half a foot of snow or more; the next day the models said it was tracking south and we might not get any snow. At that rate, why not just flip a coin?
[Read more…] about Science in Review: “Prediction is hard, especially about the future”