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You are here: Home / Archives for statistics

statistics

Science Corner: One Is The Likeliest Number

August 26, 2020 by Andy Walsh No Comments

For many real world data sets, what we actually observe is that the smaller digits are more likely, with 1 tending to be the most common digit.

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Filed Under: Science and Faith Tagged With: chance vs. design, Newcomb-Benford law, probability theory, science, science corner, statistics

Science in Review: “Prediction is hard, especially about the future”

January 27, 2016 by Andy Walsh No Comments

Satellite image showing snow from 2016 east coast blizzard

Statistical models, like those used to predict the weather, deal with uncertainty. This runs counter to our expectations for mathematics. Factor in a reliance on probabilities, which are deeply unintuitive, and it’s no wonder we find these models hard to understand. Nevertheless, they can actually be quite useful.

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Filed Under: Science Tagged With: prediction, science, science in review, science reader question, statistics

Science Reader Question: The Human Touch

January 20, 2016 by Andy Walsh No Comments

Photo of Toronto skyline at night

Humans and statistical models both make errors sometimes. But we understand the human errors because we make the same kinds of mistakes, while statistical models can be wrong in surprising ways. Perhaps we think those errors are worse simply because they are different.

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Filed Under: Science Tagged With: prediction, science, science corner, science reader question, statistics

Science Reader Question: So You’d Like to Win a $1.5B Jackpot

January 13, 2016 by Andy Walsh No Comments

We need to resist the urge to wonder “What are the odds this one specific person would have predicted this one drawing?!?!?” Instead, we should ask the statistical question: “Have enough predictions been made about enough lotteries to get positive results?”

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Filed Under: Science Tagged With: prediction, science, science corner, science reader question, statistics

Science Reader Question: Never Quote Me the Odds!

January 6, 2016 by Andy Walsh No Comments

What distinguishes statistical modeling from New Age predictions? Plenty, but maybe not exactly what you’d intuit.

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Filed Under: Science Tagged With: prediction, science, science corner, science reader question, statistics

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