Last week, I discussed what happens after a herd immunity threshold is reached, an aspect I had not seen widely talked about. Continuing in that vein, let’s talk about COVID-19 boosters. Vaccines are valuable both as personal medical interventions and as public health interventions. Those roles overlap, but not completely. Articles like this one do a good job discussing the evidence for why boosters are being considered, and framing their value from a personal medical perspective. However, my sense is that the biggest benefits from boosters specifically pertain more to their public health value, and I don’t think that is coming across as clearly.
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herd immunity
Science Corner: Shepherding our Immunity
I imagine many of you have learned more about herd immunity in the past 18 months than you ever wanted to: what it is, how many people have to be vaccinated to achieve it, whether we’ll ever get there or if that is even the right goal. And yet one aspect I have not seen widely reported on is what happens after we get there. Human behavior remains a significant driver of the pandemic, and our expectations will influence our emotional reactions to future events which will impact our future behavior. So what do you expect will happen after herd immunity? As a way to think about that question, consider the chart on the right. The blue/medium line represents infections over time, and the purple/dark line represents immune people. Where on that chart do you think herd immunity has been reached?
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