I seldom give much consideration to the title of non-fiction books other than from the perspective of whether it is a book which might be worthy of my time and (perhaps more importantly) of my limited dollars. However, as I read the first couple of essays on the thought of C.S. Lewis in this book by well-known evangelicals, I was struck by the thought that the book was misnamed. The book should be called, “Why we think it is ok for evangelicals to like Lewis.†They go so far as to call Lewis “the patron saint of evangelicals†which is a bit of an unusual moniker for someone whose view of Scripture included such ideas as the Bible contains mythology, the generation of mankind was though the process of evolution and whose eschatology borders on a kind of universalism. Couple that with Lewis’s smoking and drinking, and it seems like an odd fit, though to be fair, the smoking and drinking are not as much of an issue as when I was growing up. So this volume is in some ways, an apologetic for the great apologist, or perhaps it would be better to say that it is an attempt to develop a hermeneutic which can be used to read Lewis though evangelical eyes. [Read more…] about Book Review: The Romantic Rationalist: God, Life and Imagination in the Work of C.S. Lewis
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Engaging the Election: The Lesser of Two Evils for Evangelical Voters?
Editor’s Note: Today, Joshua Wu wraps up his most recent series (his description below). If you’re craving more data analysis, though, don’t be dismayed. Josh plans to continue blogging at ESN later this academic year, with further data analysis on political and civic topics of interest to evangelicals. Stay tuned for more! The team at ESN is deeply grateful to Josh for sharing for his thoughtful analyses of this US election season so far. [Read more…] about Engaging the Election: The Lesser of Two Evils for Evangelical Voters?
Engaging the Election: What Predicts Evangelical Approval/Disapproval of Clinton?
Author’s note: During the US election season, we will be bombarded with a chorus if not cacophony of political coverage, punditry, and even misrepresentation of the presidential campaign. To help us navigate this noisy time, I will be presenting a series of empirical snapshots on how evangelical Christians perceive the two presumptive nominees for president. By “letting the data speak,†I will present a nonpartisan analysis of the social and political attitudes of our fellow Christians. While the findings should challenge our preconceptions and convictions, it is not an endorsement or critique of either candidate. Instead, my hope is that it spurs greater conversation and discussion about how our faith can and should translate into our perceptions and participation in the presidential election. For the first post in the series, on how to read the polls, here. For the second post, on what predicts Evangelical approval or disapproval of Trump, click, here. This is the third post, on what predicts Evangelical approval or disapproval of Clinton. For the fourth post, on Engaging the Election: The Lesser of Two Evils for Evangelical Voters?, click here.
What social demographics and political attitudes predict evangelicals’ feeling towards Hilary Clinton? And do these factors also shape non-evangelical perceptions of Clinton as well?
Using the 2016 National Election Study (described here), I compare how evangelicals and non-evangelicals rate their feelings towards Clinton. Feeling scores from 0 to 49 reflect disapproval, 50 is neutral, and scores 51 to 100 indicate approval. This measure reveals not just the directionality of respondents’ attitudes (if they approve or disapprove) but also the intensity of favorability (with scores closer to 0 and 100 representing stronger feelings of disapproval and approval respectively).
I find political attitudes predict evangelicals’ feelings toward Clinton. Specifically, Democrats and those with more positive perceptions of President Obama report more favorability of Clinton.
In my analysis, I use multivariate regression models that include 27 potential predictors grouped into four categories: social demographics (gender, age, race, education, marital status, family income, church attendance), political attitudes (party identification, political ideology, interest in politics, voting in 2012, preference for principled candidate, approval of President Obama, approval of Donald Trump), social attitudes (approval of Muslims; perception of discrimination against black people, white people, women, and Christians; economic confidence; economic opportunity; intensity of American identity), and preferences about specific policies (immigration, religious exemptions in business, ISIS, global warming).
The results (full statistical results here) identify two key predictors of evangelicals’ approval of Clinton. First, Democrats are more approving of Clinton than Republicans and Independents. Evangelicals who are Democrats approve of Clinton with an average feeling score of 69. By contrast, Republican and Independent evangelicals strongly disapprove of Clinton with average scores of 14 and 26.
Predicting Approval of Clinton among Evangelicals | |
Social Demographics | None |
Political Attitudes | Democratic
Approval of President Obama |
Social Attitudes | None |
Policy Preferences | None |
Second, approval of President Obama predicts higher approval of Clinton. Evangelicals who disapprove of President Obama strongly disapprove of Clinton with an average feeling score of only 13. By comparison, evangelicals who approve of President Obama strongly approve of Clinton with an average score of 73.
While political attitudes predict evangelicals’ approval of Clinton, no social demographic, social attitude, or policy preference has a statistically significant effect on perceptions.
To contextualize these findings, I use the same multivariate regression model to identify what factors predict approval of Clinton among non-evangelicals. The results reveal non-evangelicals’ perceptions of Clinton seem to be motivated by a different set of factors than evangelicals.
Predicting Approval of Clinton among Non-Evangelicals | |
Social Demographics | Age
Non-White |
Political Attitudes | Democrat
Prefer non-ideologue candidate Approval of President Obama |
Social Attitudes | Discrimination against women
Being American not critical to identity Higher economic confidence |
Policy Preferences | Immigration bad for the country
Oppose religious exceptions for businesses |
Among evangelicals, no social demographic predicts approval of Clinton. However, among non-evangelicals, older people and non-white people have higher approval of Clinton. No social attitudes predict evangelicals’ perceptions of Clinton either. However, non-evangelicals who perceive greater discrimination against women, do not report being American is critical to their identity, and have higher economic confidence have more favorable attitudes toward Clinton. Finally, while no policy preference predicts evangelicals’ perceptions of Clinton, non-evangelicals who believe immigration is bad for the country and oppose religious exceptions for businesses are more favorable towards Clinton.
Evangelicals and non-evangelicals are similar in the political attitudes that motivate approval of Clinton. Both Democratic Party affiliation and approval of President Obama predict perceptions of Clinton. Non-evangelicals who believe politicians should not be ideologues are also more approving of Clinton.
As a robustness check, I compare the magnitude of statistically significant predictors identified by the evangelical and non-evangelical models. Only perceptions of discrimination against women have statistically significant differential effects among evangelicals and non-evangelicals. This implies that the belief of greater discrimination against women has a greater effect in increasingly positive perceptions of Clinton among non-evangelicals than evangelicals.
Therefore, with the exception of attitudes about perceived discrimination against women, there do not appear to be significant differences in the factors shaping evangelicals’ and non-evangelicals’ perceptions of Clinton.
Engaging the Election: What Predicts Evangelical Approval/Disapproval of Trump?
Author’s note: During the US election season, we will be bombarded with a chorus if not cacophony of political coverage, punditry, and even misrepresentation of the presidential campaign. To help us navigate this noisy time, I will be presenting a series of empirical snapshots on how evangelical Christians perceive the two presumptive nominees for president. By “letting the data speak,†I will present a nonpartisan analysis of the social and political attitudes of our fellow Christians. While the findings should challenge our preconceptions and convictions, it is not an endorsement or critique of either candidate. Instead, my hope is that it spurs greater conversation and discussion about how our faith can and should translate into our perceptions and participation in the presidential election. See the first post in the series, on how to read the polls, here. This is the second post, on what predicts Evangelical approval or disapproval of Trump. For the third post, on what predicts Evangelical approval or disapproval of Clinton, click here. For the fourth post, on Engaging the Election: The Lesser of Two Evils for Evangelical Voters?, click here.
What social demographics and political attitudes predict evangelicals’ feeling towards Donald Trump? And do these factors also shape non-evangelical perceptions of Trump as well?
To begin to answer these questions, I analyze survey data from the 2016 National Election Study (described here). Compared to media polls that use a multiple-choice approval or disapproval question, the National Election Study asked a representative sample of Americans to rate how they feel about the candidates on a 0-100 scale. Feeling scores from 0 to 49 reflect disapproval, 50 is neutral, and scores 51 to 100 indicate approval. This allows researchers to examine not just the directionality of respondents’ attitudes (if they approve or disapprove) but also the intensity of favorability (with scores closer to 0 and 100 representing stronger feelings of disapproval and approval respectively).
First, I identify what factors predict how evangelicals differ in their perceptions of Trump. I find older and white evangelicals have more positive attitudes toward Trump than younger and non-white evangelicals. Moreover, those who more strongly believe there is a lot of discrimination against whites are also more approving of Trump.
In my analysis, I use multivariate regression models that include 27 potential predictors grouped into four categories: social demographics (gender, age, race, education, marital status, family income, church attendance), political attitudes (party identification, political ideology, interest in politics, voting in 2012, preference for principled candidate, approval of President Obama, approval of Hilary Clinton), social attitudes (approval of Muslims; perception of discrimination against black people, white people, women, and Christians; economic confidence; economic opportunity; intensity of American identity), and preferences about specific policies (immigration, religious exemptions in business, ISIS, global warming).
The results (full statistical results here) identify five key predictors of evangelicals’ approval of Trump. The other predictors do not have statistically significant effects on feeling towards Trump. Among the social demographic measures, age and race predict approval. Evangelicals over 49 years old (the median age of evangelicals in the study) approve of Trump with an average feeling score of 54. By contrast, evangelicals younger than 50 disapprove of Trump; they give Trump an average score of 44. Disapproval of Trump is strongest among millennial evangelicals (18–25 years old) who give Trump an average score of 31.
Predicting Approval of Trump among Evangelicals | |
Social Demographics | Age (older)
White |
Political Attitudes | Lower interest in politics
Disapproval of President Obama |
Social Attitudes | Greater perceived discrimination against white people |
Policy Preferences | None |
Evangelicals’ approval of Trump is also predicted by race. White evangelicals approve of Trump with an average feeling score of 59 while non-white evangelicals strongly disapprove of Trump with an average score of 29. Similarly, evangelicals who perceive more discrimination against white people approve of Trump (with an average score of 60) while evangelicals who believe there is less discrimination against whites disapprove of Trump (with an average score of 46).
Finally, two types of political attitudes predict evangelicals’ feelings towards Trump. First, evangelicals who are politically disinterested approve of Trump (with an average feeling score of 57); by contrast, politically engaged evangelicals disapprove of Trump (with an average score of 47). Second, evangelicals who are more disapproving of President Obama are more approving of Trump.
To contextualize these findings, I use the same multivariate regression model to identify if similar factors also predict approval of Trump among non-evangelicals. The results reveal that variation in how non-evangelicals perceive Trump is motivated by a different set of factors.
Predicting Approval of Trump among Non-Evangelicals | |
Social Demographics | None |
Political Attitudes | Republican
Disapproval of President Obama |
Social Attitudes | Disapproval of Muslims |
Policy Preferences | Send troops to fight ISIS |
Age and race strongly predict approval among evangelicals, but do not predict non-evangelicals’ perceptions of Trump. By contrast, among non-evangelicals, party identification predicts feeling but not among evangelicals. Disapproval of President Obama predicts more positive feelings toward Trump among both groups.
Different social attitudes also predict perceptions of Trump. Among evangelicals, perceptions of greater discrimination against white people predict more positive attitudes toward Trump but among non-evangelicals, greater disapproval of Muslims predicts more positive attitudes. Finally, whereas no policy preference predicts approval among evangelicals, non-evangelicals who favor sending troops to fight ISIS are more approving of Trump.
As a robustness check, I compare the magnitude of statistically significant predictors identified by the evangelical and non-evangelical models. I find that the effects of age, race, and political disengagement are statistically different. This implies that being older, white, and politically disengaged more strongly predicts positive perceptions of Trump among evangelicals than non-evangelicals. This is further evidence that at least when it comes to attitudes about Trump, evangelicals and non-evangelicals are motivated by different sets of social, culture, and political motivations.
Engaging the Election: How to Read the Polls
Author’s note: During the US election season, we will be bombarded with a chorus if not cacophony of political coverage, punditry, and even misrepresentation of the presidential campaign. To help us navigate this noisy time, I will be presenting a series of empirical snapshots on how evangelical Christians perceive the two presumptive nominees for president. By “letting the data speak,†I will present a nonpartisan analysis of the social and political attitudes of our fellow Christians. While the findings should challenge our preconceptions and convictions, it is not an endorsement or critique of either candidate. Instead, my hope is that it spurs greater conversation and discussion about how our faith can and should translate into our perceptions and participation in the presidential election. This is the first post in the series, on how to read the polls. For the second post, on what predicts Evangelical approval or disapproval of Trump, click, here. For the third post, on what predicts Evangelical approval or disapproval of Clinton, click here. For the fourth post, on Engaging the Election: The Lesser of Two Evils for Evangelical Voters?, click here.
[Read more…] about Engaging the Election: How to Read the Polls